Although electric vehicles are projected to see strong growth, the EV market is
limited and is expected to remain mostly status quo for at least the next eight
years, said John Eichberger, executive director of the Fuels Institute.
He spoke on the U.S. vehicle fleet outlook for 2020-2030 at the OPIS Octane
Value Forum held in Houston on Wednesday. The conference ends on Thursday.
Eichberger noted that forecasts for the EV market growth vary widely, with the
U.S. Energy Information Administration being one of the most conservatives for
estimates and Bloomberg New Energy Finance with the most favorable forecast for
EVs.
By 2025, Bloomberg expects to see an EV market penetration of 10%-11%, followed
by Edison Electric Institute at 7%-8% and EIA and Navigant Research at about
6%.
The fleet in eight years will look very much like today’s, with liquid fuel
powering 96% of light-duty vehicles in 2025, Eichberger said. He added that the
U.S. government projected liquid fuel maintains an 88% share of sales to the
vehicle industry in 2040.
“The (vehicle) market changes slowly, even with strong growth. Disruptive
change is possible, but this is not the smartphone market — even disruption
will take a very long time. Cross-industry collaboration is critical to new
product success,” he said.
On diesel, the middle distillate is holding its own in the vehicle market.
Eichberger said that the Volkswagen emission scandal has not diminished
interest to own diesel-fueled light-duty vehicles.
Diesel is not as expensive relative to gasoline, based on the price trends and
spreads of both products in the past few years, he added.
Diesel will continue to dominate the commercial vehicle market, and light-duty
diesel will remain a niche market, Eichberger said.
However, he noted that diesel fuel quality could be a major issue.
“It’s not just corrosion — it goes much further than that. New high pressure
engines have lower tolerances than earlier technologies and U.S. fuel standards
may not be sufficient,” he said.
The Fuel Quality Council will evaluate extent of engine-fuel challenges, and
foster collaboration to develop a common approach to improvements. It will also
calculate cost of remediation options , and lead by combination of fuel
providers, marketers, engine manufacturers, fleet operators, additive and fuel
quality providers.
Fuels Institute is founded by the Association for Convenience and Fuel
Retailing.
–Edgar Ang, eang@opisnet.com
Copyright, Oil Price Information Service
